{"ok":true,"chain":"robinhood","question":"What share of signals at this conviction went 3x within 72h?","method":{"model":"isotonic regression (monotone, non-decreasing) of conviction -> P(3x within 72h), refitted on a rolling window of labeled signals","labeler":"every emitted signal is persisted before its outcome is known; 72h later it is labeled from recorded trade prints (chain 4663) or public pool OHLC (Solana): max multiple, hit_3x_72h, rugged in the first 5 minutes, rugged within 24h, graduation survival","unmeasurable":"a token that never trades again after the signal is a MISS, not missing data: outcomes are read from the complete trade record (the curve's own CurveBuy/CurveSell logs on 4663, pool OHLC on Solana), so no trade in 72h means the price never moved. A signal is 'insufficient_data' ONLY when that record is unavailable, the curve graduated (trading moved to a venue the record does not cover) or no entry price existed — the reason is published per signal in calibration.exclusion_reasons","brier":"out-of-sample: fitted on the oldest 70% of the window, scored on the newest 30% it never saw; brier_base is what the constant base rate scored on the same tail — the bar to beat"},"calibration":{"target_multiple":3.0,"horizon_hours":72,"min_samples":150,"n_samples":2500,"n_train":1750,"n_test":750,"sufficient":true,"method":"isotonic-sklearn","base_rate":0.0296,"brier":0.021337,"brier_base":0.021018,"exclusion_rate":0.1694,"excluded_signals":1016,"resolved_signals":5998,"exclusion_reasons":{"history_unavailable":28,"legacy_no_prints":820,"venue_moved":168},"label_sources":{"observations":{"n":153,"hits":71},"chain_logs":{"n":4829,"hits":89}},"knots":[[0.0,0.01087],[6.3,0.01087],[6.4,0.016667],[6.9,0.016667],[7.0,0.027523],[15.2,0.027523],[15.3,0.033333],[15.5,0.033333],[15.6,0.035088],[18.0,0.035088],[18.1,0.039175],[26.3,0.039175],[26.4,0.039548],[80.2,0.039548]],"bins":[{"lo":0.01,"hi":0.02,"n":167,"mean_predicted":0.010239,"observed":0.011976},{"lo":0.02,"hi":0.05,"n":273,"mean_predicted":0.028621,"observed":0.032967},{"lo":0.05,"hi":0.1,"n":310,"mean_predicted":0.050076,"observed":0.016129}],"type_precision":{"exit":{"n":250,"hits":3,"window_n":250,"min_samples":30,"max_ci_width":0.1,"ci_low":0.004089,"ci_high":0.034681,"ci_width":0.030591,"ci_ratio":8.480819,"sufficient":true,"precision":0.012,"display":"1.2% of 250"},"hot":{"n":42,"hits":5,"window_n":250,"min_samples":30,"max_ci_width":0.1,"ci_low":0.051938,"ci_high":0.250004,"ci_width":0.198066,"ci_ratio":4.813503,"sufficient":false,"precision":null,"display":"insufficient history (42/30)"},"fresh":{"n":250,"hits":6,"window_n":250,"min_samples":30,"max_ci_width":0.1,"ci_low":0.011045,"ci_high":0.051362,"ci_width":0.040317,"ci_ratio":4.650354,"sufficient":true,"precision":0.024,"display":"2.4% of 250"},"base":{"n":250,"hits":7,"window_n":250,"min_samples":30,"max_ci_width":0.1,"ci_low":0.013628,"ci_high":0.056658,"ci_width":0.04303,"ci_ratio":4.157436,"sufficient":true,"precision":0.028,"display":"2.8% of 250"}},"type_window_n":250,"type_min_samples":30,"liquidity_strata":{"buckets":{"0-5k":{"n":2317,"hits":65,"ci_low":0.022071,"ci_high":0.035598,"ci_width":0.013527,"sufficient":true,"rate_3x":0.028054},"50k-inf":{"n":94,"hits":2,"ci_low":0.005854,"ci_high":0.07429,"ci_width":0.068436,"sufficient":true,"rate_3x":0.021277},"15k-50k":{"n":34,"hits":2,"ci_low":0.016283,"ci_high":0.190936,"ci_width":0.174653,"sufficient":false,"rate_3x":null},"5k-15k":{"n":55,"hits":5,"ci_low":0.039458,"ci_high":0.195775,"ci_width":0.156317,"sufficient":false,"rate_3x":null}},"bucket_bounds_usd":[5000.0,15000.0,50000.0,null],"published_buckets":2,"rate_spread_across_buckets":0.006777,"note":"3x rate stratified by entry liquidity; a shape that only exists across buckets is a pool-size effect, not conviction. Stratify before believing the conviction curve."},"conviction_kind_strata":{"kinds":{"trader-credibility":{"n":2500,"hits":74,"ci_low":0.023644,"ci_high":0.036999,"ci_width":0.013355,"sufficient":true,"rate_3x":0.0296}},"known_kinds":["trader-credibility","buy-pressure"],"published_kinds":1,"rate_spread_across_kinds":null,"note":"3x rate stratified by conviction_kind (trader-credibility vs buy-pressure); the two are different signals sharing one conviction column, so a single curve across both measures neither. Split before fitting."},"window_start":1789448010.122232,"window_end":1789584420.469463,"fitted_at":1789906974.5628386,"headline":"n=2500, Brier 0.0213, base 0.0210"},"regime":{"state":"risk-on","exposure_multiplier":1.0,"label":"regime: risk-on","median_24h_pct":0.0415,"share_below_open":0.35,"tokens":40,"min_tokens":12,"suppressed":false,"thresholds":{"risk_off_median_pct":-8.0,"caution_median_pct":-3.0,"risk_off_share_below":0.75,"caution_share_below":0.6},"source":"tracked Solana pool universe, 24h price change"},"updated_at":1789906974.5628386}