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Split before fitting."},"conviction_separation":{"top_min_score":50.0,"bottom_max_score":12.0,"min_band_samples":25,"pooled":{"n":10000,"top":{"n":53,"hits":5,"rate_3x":0.09434,"ci_low":0.040973,"ci_high":0.202537},"bottom":{"n":6762,"hits":85,"rate_3x":0.01257,"ci_low":0.010178,"ci_high":0.015516},"rest":{"n":9947,"hits":204,"rate_3x":0.020509,"ci_low":0.017903,"ci_high":0.023485},"share_top":0.0053,"ratio_top_over_bottom":7.5052,"judged":true,"separated":true},"buckets":{"0-5k":{"n":2350,"top":{"n":17,"hits":1,"rate_3x":0.058824,"ci_low":0.01046,"ci_high":0.26982},"bottom":{"n":1213,"hits":11,"rate_3x":0.009068,"ci_low":0.005071,"ci_high":0.016165},"rest":{"n":2333,"hits":33,"rate_3x":0.014145,"ci_low":0.01009,"ci_high":0.019798},"share_top":0.007234,"ratio_top_over_bottom":null,"judged":false,"separated":null},"unknown":{"n":6868,"top":{"n":32,"hits":4,"rate_3x":0.125,"ci_low":0.049701,"ci_high":0.280683},"bottom":{"n":5233,"hits":50,"rate_3x":0.009555,"ci_low":0.007255,"ci_high":0.012574},"rest":{"n":6836,"hits":94,"rate_3x":0.013751,"ci_low":0.011251,"ci_high":0.016797},"share_top":0.004659,"ratio_top_over_bottom":13.0822,"judged":true,"separated":true},"5k-15k":{"n":782,"top":{"n":4,"hits":0,"rate_3x":0.0,"ci_low":0.0,"ci_high":0.489891},"bottom":{"n":316,"hits":24,"rate_3x":0.075949,"ci_low":0.051566,"ci_high":0.110519},"rest":{"n":778,"hits":77,"rate_3x":0.098972,"ci_low":0.079917,"ci_high":0.121967},"share_top":0.005115,"ratio_top_over_bottom":null,"judged":false,"separated":null}},"bucket_bounds_usd":[5000.0,15000.0,50000.0,null],"judged_buckets":[],"separated_buckets":[],"verdict":"insufficient","headline":"no liquidity bucket has 25+ signals in both conviction bands yet — not judged","note":"top conviction band vs bottom band, pooled and then WITHIN each entry-liquidity bucket. Separation that survives only in the pooled numbers is pool size, not conviction; 'separated' means the two 95% Wilson intervals do not overlap."},"window_coverage":{"first_signal_at":1793081355.245087,"last_signal_at":1793589879.612962,"first_signal_iso":"2026-10-27T06:09:15.245087Z","last_signal_iso":"2026-11-02T03:24:39.612962Z","days":5.886,"rows":10000,"distinct_tokens":5982,"repeat_rows":4018,"consecutive_bucket_rows":3518,"rows_after_per_token_day_dedupe":7355,"dedupe_per_token_day_active":false,"labeled_available":100400,"labeled_available_days":48.945,"labeled_available_first_iso":"2026-09-14T04:43:20.173019Z","labeled_available_last_iso":"2026-11-02T03:24:39.612962Z","capped_by_window_n":true,"note":"the exact span of signals this fit was computed on. When labeled_available is larger than rows the row cap is binding; when it is equal, the window is every labeled signal there is and only the labeler can widen it.","window_n":10000,"window_days_cap":60},"label_backlog":{"due_unlabeled":0,"pending_total":5175,"oldest_due_at":null,"oldest_due_iso":null,"oldest_due_age_hours":null,"note":"signals whose 72h window has closed and that are still unlabeled. A large backlog means the fit window is bounded by the labeler, not by the row cap."},"fit_reference":{"n_samples":2500,"min_samples":150,"sufficient":true,"n_train":1750,"n_test":750,"base_rate":0.0232,"brier":0.020117,"brier_base":0.019621,"method":"isotonic-sklearn","knots":[[0.0,0.009554],[5.1,0.009554],[5.2,0.017544],[5.8,0.017544],[5.9,0.01848],[10.5,0.01848],[10.6,0.024],[12.5,0.024],[12.6,0.025641],[13.1,0.025641],[13.2,0.047619],[13.5,0.047619],[13.6,0.05],[28.1,0.05],[28.2,0.0625],[29.6,0.0625],[29.7,0.068182],[35.2,0.068182],[35.3,0.086957],[54.1,0.086957],[56.8,0.285714],[69.8,0.285714],[72.6,0.5],[73.4,0.5]],"bins":[{"lo":0.01,"hi":0.02,"n":521,"hits":9,"mean_predicted":0.011336,"observed":0.017274,"ci_low":0.009114,"ci_high":0.032501},{"lo":0.02,"hi":0.05,"n":41,"hits":0,"mean_predicted":0.029941,"observed":0.0,"ci_low":0.0,"ci_high":0.085668},{"lo":0.05,"hi":0.1,"n":187,"hits":6,"mean_predicted":0.06618,"observed":0.032086,"ci_low":0.014786,"ci_high":0.068222},{"lo":0.2,"hi":0.4,"n":1,"hits":0,"mean_predicted":0.398551,"observed":0.0,"ci_low":0.0,"ci_high":0.793451}],"window_n":2500,"note":"the same fit restricted to the newest 2500 labeled signals — the window the earlier published numbers were computed on, kept so they stay reproducible now the cap is higher"},"window_start":1793081355.245087,"window_end":1793589879.612962,"window_start_iso":"2026-10-27T06:09:15.245087Z","window_end_iso":"2026-11-02T03:24:39.612962Z","fitted_at":1793849089.6080084,"headline":"n=10000, Brier 0.0247, base 0.0251"},"regime":{"state":"risk-on","exposure_multiplier":1.0,"label":"regime: risk-on","median_24h_pct":1.7675,"share_below_open":0.3,"tokens":40,"min_tokens":12,"suppressed":false,"thresholds":{"risk_off_median_pct":-8.0,"caution_median_pct":-3.0,"risk_off_share_below":0.75,"caution_share_below":0.6},"source":"tracked Solana pool universe, 24h price change"},"filter":"all","count":40}