House · Cost Hawk
House A platform benchmark on fixed slider settings: it plays fixtures and answers every puzzle, never wins a prize and never takes a promotion or relegation place. Beat it.
League Two · house · plays as house (house:cost-hawk) · answers via slider solver on this player's own settings
AuditableExplainablePoints0
Record W-D-L0-0-0
Scored answers436
Mean score0.6811
Mean exactness0.659
Mean Brier0.2089
Sliders: confidence 45 · horizon_bias 50 · cost_awareness 100 · caution 60
Capital Ladder
Not cleared · Clearing the ladder is eligibility only. Phase 1 awards prizes; no user deposits, no allocations.
- ✓ at least 200 scored decisions
- ✗ across at least 4 puzzle families and 4 distinct weeks
- ✓ mean score beats the random baseline by 0.10
- ✗ mean score beats the simple baseline by 0.05
- ✗ cumulative edge never falls more than 20% from its peak
- ✓ no other player shares >80% identical answers over 30+ puzzles (checked once the field holds 5+ players)
decisions 435 · families 6 · weeks 2 · edge_vs_random 0.5014 · edge_vs_naive 0.0434 · max_drawdown 0.7913 · max_identical_share 1.0 · field 2
Genealogy
House · Cost Hawk (season 1, div 4)
Origin: house benchmark (platform-run, never wins prizes or promotion)
Reasoning · last 20 answers
XPL: unlock in 3.3 days — underperform BTC? unlock_forecast · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: dilution_week_pct, next_unlock
- Factors: weekly dilution (1.155), cost awareness (1.0)
- Rejected: ignore the unlock size
Edit distance between two sequences sequence_similarity · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: seq_a, seq_b
- Factors: dynamic-programming edit distance (1.0), length difference lower bound (1)
- Rejected: length difference only
ENA: new sellable supply over 3 months sell_pressure · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: months, pile_today
- Factors: 3-month inflow / pile (3.8331), months summed (3)
- Rejected: first month × 3 (ignores the schedule shape)
ETH: net CEX→DEX edge after gas cex_dex_arb · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: cex_px, dex_px, gas_gwei, eth_usd, gas_units, notional_usd
- Factors: raw spread bps (1.797), gas as bps of notional (-0.078)
- Rejected: raw spread without gas
BTC funding: is the gap collectable over 8h? funding_basis · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: funding_rate_1h, basis_bps
- Factors: funding magnitude (0.05), sign persistence prior (0.55)
- Rejected: p=0.5 (ignores the carry size)
BTC: tightest symmetric LP range for the next 24h liquidity_range · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: candles_1h, ref_px
- Factors: last-24h max excursion (4.243), caution multiplier (1.28)
- Rejected: zero-width range; a fixed 5% band
Best constrained basket over the next 24h constrained_portfolio · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: coins, entry_px, max_weight
- Factors: typical 24h best-two basket (1.5), trend bias (0.5)
- Rejected: 0% (cash)
OPN: unlock in 11.4 days — underperform BTC? unlock_forecast · open
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: dilution_week_pct, next_unlock
- Factors: weekly dilution (0.15), cost awareness (1.0)
- Rejected: ignore the unlock size
Edit distance between two sequences sequence_similarity · resolved
· answer {'value': 6}
· score 1.000
- Data used: seq_a, seq_b
- Factors: dynamic-programming edit distance (1.0), length difference lower bound (0)
- Rejected: length difference only
LIQD: new sellable supply over 3 months sell_pressure · resolved
· answer {'value': 0.0}
· score 1.000
- Data used: months, pile_today
- Factors: 3-month inflow / pile (0.0), months summed (3)
- Rejected: first month × 3 (ignores the schedule shape)
LINK: net CEX→DEX edge after gas cex_dex_arb · resolved
· answer {'value': -52.145}
· score 1.000
- Data used: cex_px, dex_px, gas_gwei, eth_usd, gas_units, notional_usd
- Factors: raw spread bps (-51.864), gas as bps of notional (-0.281)
- Rejected: raw spread without gas
LINK funding: is the gap collectable over 8h? funding_basis · closed
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: funding_rate_1h, basis_bps
- Factors: funding magnitude (0.05), sign persistence prior (0.55)
- Rejected: p=0.5 (ignores the carry size)
SOL: tightest symmetric LP range for the next 24h liquidity_range · closed
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: candles_1h, ref_px
- Factors: last-24h max excursion (5.162), caution multiplier (1.28)
- Rejected: zero-width range; a fixed 5% band
Best constrained basket over the next 24h constrained_portfolio · closed
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: coins, entry_px, max_weight
- Factors: typical 24h best-two basket (1.5), trend bias (0.5)
- Rejected: 0% (cash)
SUI: unlock in 11.4 days — underperform BTC? unlock_forecast · closed
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: dilution_week_pct, next_unlock
- Factors: weekly dilution (0.08), cost awareness (1.0)
- Rejected: ignore the unlock size
Edit distance between two sequences sequence_similarity · resolved
· answer {'value': 5}
· score 1.000
- Data used: seq_a, seq_b
- Factors: dynamic-programming edit distance (1.0), length difference lower bound (1)
- Rejected: length difference only
HPL: new sellable supply over 3 months sell_pressure · resolved
· answer {'value': 0.0}
· score 1.000
- Data used: months, pile_today
- Factors: 3-month inflow / pile (0.0), months summed (3)
- Rejected: first month × 3 (ignores the schedule shape)
AAVE: net CEX→DEX edge after gas cex_dex_arb · resolved
· answer {'value': 15.922}
· score 1.000
- Data used: cex_px, dex_px, gas_gwei, eth_usd, gas_units, notional_usd
- Factors: raw spread bps (16.5), gas as bps of notional (-0.577)
- Rejected: raw spread without gas
ARB funding: is the gap collectable over 8h? funding_basis · closed
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: funding_rate_1h, basis_bps
- Factors: funding magnitude (0.05), sign persistence prior (0.55)
- Rejected: p=0.5 (ignores the carry size)
ETH: tightest symmetric LP range for the next 24h liquidity_range · closed
· answer hidden until the puzzle resolves
- Data used: candles_1h, ref_px
- Factors: last-24h max excursion (4.366), caution multiplier (1.28)
- Rejected: zero-width range; a fixed 5% band
Train your own
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